Estimation and validation of the probability of structural failure by the monte carlo method – classic and bayesian formulations

Authors: Luísa N. Hoffbauer, Carlos C. António

ABSTRACT:

One of the main problems in structural reliability analysis of laminated composites is the possible existence of multiple MPP (Most Probable failure Point). The problem is similar to the existence of several local minima in structural optimization. Indeed, a local MPP may not correspond to the most unfavorable situation, in terms of failure probability of the structure. In this work, it is used the Ha sofer-Lind method to calculate the probability of failure for several fixed loads. To validate the results obtained through this methodology, the classical method and the Bayesian method using Monte Carlo simulation are considered. Using a particular examp le, the validation process demonstrates an agreement between both methods to estimate the probability of failure of the laminated composite structures.

Key Words:
Bayesian inference, composite structures, estruturas compósitas, Hasofer-Lind method, Monte Carlo simulation, probability of failure
Affiliation:

Luísa N. Hoffbauer1 | Carlos C. António2
1LAETA/INEGI, Instituto Superior de Engenharia do Porto
2LAETA/INEGI, Faculty of Engineering, University of Porto